Balochistan Earthquake

A strong quake of 6.4 magnitude hit Balochistan Wednesday, killing above 190 people and injured hundred others and caused massive destruction, officials and witnesses said.
Officials said the deadly quake struck shortly before dawn on Wednesday followed by aftershock hours later at 5:32pm, nearly 60 kilometres northeast of Quetta.
Towns and villages in the Ziarat district appeared to be the worst-hit area. The cities and towns struck by the tremor included Pishin, Qila Abdullah, Chaman, Loralai, Sibbi and Mastung, rural areas all lying close to border with Afghanistan. According to news channels the shocks from the quake were felt in the Kandahar province of Afghanistan.
District naib nazim Ziarat Momin Khan Dummar told media persons that death toll can cross a figure of 190 as rescue teams have rushed volunteers to some villages where dozens of people are buried under debris collapsed houses.
"I personally visited Wam, Kann and other areas where 28 people of only two families had perished under debris" he said adding that reports coming from Killi Sra Kheizai "are dreadful where scores of inhabitants are still under debris".
The nazim added that it was difficult to find out the real figure at this moment as most of the dead had already been buried by the locals.
Killi Khoshab in Khanozai had been destroyed completely by the morning earthquake.
In the meantime, medical teams of Pak-Army, FC, Health Department continued treating those who sustained injuries in the Ziarat district hospital.
The army helicopters shifted 16 serious injured to the CMH Quetta and also rushed a dozen of volunteers to Killi Sra Kheizai for rescue and relief operations.
An operation room headed by AIG Mujahid Awais has been established to provide relief to the earthquake victims.
The administration has initiated relief and rescue operations and emergency has been declared in hospitals.
In Ziarat 47 persons have been killed and around 57 were wounded, locals said.
According locals three jolts of the quake were felt in Balochistan including a 6.5 tremor.
After strong earthquake people were advised through mosque loud speakers to quit their houses and go to open places.
Chief Minister of Baluchistan Aslam Raeesani has declared emergency in the hospitals and all staff has been directed to call their respective hospitals.
"Initial reports suggest that areas of Quetta, Sibi, Bolan, Chaman, Mastung, Qilla Abdullah and Qalat were trembled in the seismic activity," officials said.
Dilawar Kakar, nazim of Ziarat, said that hundreds of others had been injured in the tremor and perhaps 15,000 left homeless and in need of help.
"Rescue efforts are being made by the villagers themselves but what we need is a larger operation by the government," he said.
A local police official, Muhammad Ghayas, said that dozens of government buildings and mud-brick houses had been destroyed in Ziarat. Wam Kaley, one of the affected villages, was almost completely destroyed, with houses buried in landslides triggered by the quake.
Later wailing villagers dug through rubble with their bare hands in a desperate search for loved ones missing since a devastating quake struck Wam village.
Aftershocks continued to pummell the area as army soldiers, local Red Crescent volunteers and other non-governmental organisations picked through the shattered remains of the village and medical teams treated the wounded, locals said.
Scores of cars and motorbikes thronged Wam, about 50 kilometres of the historic hill town of Ziarat, as people rushed in from adjoining cities and towns frantic to know the fate of their loved ones.
Many survivors were wailing and shouting the names of their relatives as they dug through the debris.
Nearby peaks in the mountainous region bordering Afghanistan were seen spewing dust, causing fresh fear and panic among locals.
More than 200 wounded have been taken to hospitals in Quetta and elsewhere, officials and volunteers said.
For survivors, relief began to trickle into the Wam village despite the overland route being all but impassable after the quake left huge cracks in the main 50-kilometre road from Quetta to Ziarat and sent massive boulders crashing down from the mountains.
Food was being served to survivors in a hastily-erected tent after four military helicopters flew into the area with relief supplies.
"We were fast asleep at the time of quake and when awakened by the shocks we took no time to come out of our houses," said Wahidullah, a resident of Quetta.
Another senior official in Ziarat, Sohail-ur-Rehman, said authorities were scrambling to help about 12,000 homeless people and to bury the dead.
"Graves are being dug with excavators as we can't keep dead bodies in the open," Rehman said.
The head of a national disaster management team, Farooq Ahmed Khan, said about 300 rescue workers had reached Ziarat. Tents, blankets and clothing were being flown in.
Officials and hospital staff said scores of people had been injured, most when houses collapsed or in the panic when people rushed from their homes.
Quetta resident Amjad Hussain said there had been panic in the city.
"There were two tremors, the second one was serious and people rushed out of their houses," Hussain said.
Wednesday's earthquake was the deadliest since a magnitude 7.6 temblor struck Azad Kashmir, Mansehra and other northern regions on October 8, 2005, killing over 80 thousand people and injuring thousands of others.
In 1935 a devastating quake destroyed most of Quetta, killing more than 30 thousand people.

Compensation announced

Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani on Wednesday announced a monetary compensation of Rs 300,000 for the survivors of each deceased person and Rs100,000 for the seriously injured.
Gilani directed the Cabinet Division and National Disaster Management Authority to carry out relief work expeditiously, monitor relief activities in all affected areas and keep him posted on the estimates of damage to life and property.
The Prime Minister, who is currently visiting Turkey, spoke to Governor Balochistan Nawab Zulfiqar Ali Magsi over telephone and asked the provincial government to ensure provision of proper free medical care to the injured as well as relief goods like tents, blankets and food items.
He also assured that federal government would provide all necessary relief supplies to affected people.

15,000 people displaced

As many as 15,000 people have been displaced as a result of the earthquake, provincial minister for forests and wildlife Maulvi Abdul Samad Akhundzada told a news conference here on Wednesday.
The minister said that district Ziarat was badly affected from the earthquake while people of other parts including Pashin, Zob, Qila Abdullah, Khanzoi and Khan Bangla also suffered huge loss of life and property.
Though it was difficult to find out the real figure of casualties at this moment, however 190 deaths have been confirmed so far, plus we have reports about destruction of 1,500 houses, he added.
He said that Balochistan government was all out to support the victim families and Chief Minister Aslam Raisani had reached the affected areas immediate after receiving the information.

Bring back smiles on our faces, Mr President!

As a child I had read an interesting quote somewhere which has remained a guiding principle for me ever since, and that was: “Be nice to people until you make a million - after that every body would be nice to you”. The “making of a million” is used here metaphorically. The underlying idea is to earn a respect and honour first and then expect respect from the others. Making fortune and amassing wealth surely do play an important role in that pursuit. Imagine why are Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, including some of the desi folks like Mittal and the Ambanis, etc, famous for? It is only because they were able to build a business empire and thus became filthy rich, that’s all. Even the ordinary Ross Perot had made headlines in the American politics in the 90s only because he had billions stashed away in his coffers to throw for his passion in the US election campaigns.
The same connotation also equally applies to the nations at large. Today we see an association of the rich economy called G-7 (or G-8, if we want to include Russia as well; and now we have G-20) and each one of them are widely respected for the strides made in economic progress. For that matter even China, which is not included in that august list of G-8, is respected for its emerging economy; so are India and Brazil. And, after the recent global credit crisis, even the rich Sheikhdoms of Arabia and the Gulf are getting the kind of respect and importance that they never got before; only because they have billions and trillions available in their reserve.
Unfortunately Pakistan was not able to make “those millions” and that surely explains why today it commands no respect anywhere. It is not that we didn’t get any opportunity to make some bucks but the fact of the matter remains that we missed the bus. I was once in NIPA (National Institute of Public Administration) on training where a learned speaker had informed us then that in the 60s we were teaching South Korea to make 5-year plans. At that time while nations like South Korea, China and others were investing in their infrastructures, we in Pakistan were dumping our wealth in concrete. We built two capitals, one in Islamabad and the other in Dhaka - a wasteful investment from the economist’s standpoint. Money invested wisely then would have taken us to some height also but alas, we did miss the bus then. The 70s were the decade in which we were recuperating from the great shock in the aftermath from the fall of Dhaka. The 80s saw millions and billions coming in as US aids, primarily in return for our services to them in that Jihad against the Soviets, but the same was mismanaged and mostly spent on buying arms. The result had showed in the Ojhri Camp scandal. The 90s past by mostly in political turmoil and then came Musharraf and his cronies; from Oct-1999 until Feb-2008. Like Zia, he also received billions as aid but what ultimately happened during and aftermath of his about 9 years of autocratic rule is all before us. The experts now say that Musharraf with the help of his crafty PM-cum-finance wizard kept things propped up artificially with cooked up and fudged economic indicators. The artificial veneer and façade thus erected soon gave way and we now find ourselves in deep shit. The phenomenal rise in fuel price coupled with the recent global credit tsunami came as further blows to our already fledgling economic condition. This was multiplied with the power shortage throughout the country which saw factories shutting down together with restlessness and hopelessness generated in the minds of the common man. And, as if it was not all that we had to experience and endure a series of bombings and brazen suicide attacks even inside the security zones of Islamabad. All these have worked to draw us to the abyss and have taken us further down into the black hole of chaos and instability.
Little do we realise that we are passing through the worst part of our entire history; unprecedented and some call it worst than the situation in the aftermath of the breakup of the country. We don’t seem to even realise what the world is thinking about us. The Newsweek in its issue of 29 Oct 2007 has already declared us as the “most dangerous country in the world today”. The international media is painting bleak future for our country. The examples of some of which are: Pakistan is a country on fire (Ayesha Siddiqa - PK on Web); Pakistan is the most dangerous country on earth and its presidency is the most dangerous job on earth (Roger Cohen - The New York Times); the recent bombings have badly shaken confidence in the new government among Pakistanis, diplomats and investors alike (Jane Perlez - International Herald Tribune); it’s all the greater paradox then that the Taliban militias now threatening the stability of Pakistan owe their survival - and much of their present strength - to a succession of Pakistani governments that continues to the present day (Dexter Filkins - The New York Times); the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Admiral Mike Mullen, admitted earlier this month that America and its allies were “running out of time” to save Afghanistan. For that, Washington must finally persuade Pakistan’s leaders that this is not just America’s fight but essential to their own security and survival as a democracy. And Pakistan’s leaders must persuade their citizens (Editorial - International Herald Tribune); take a restive, nuclear-armed nation with an untested new government, an escalating Islamic insurgency, long-standing tensions with its neighbors and an economy in free fall for months. Then add in a global financial crisis. Some analysts and diplomats fear Pakistan could come to exemplify a perilous new phenomenon; a strategic but unstable state at risk of being pushed to the breaking point by external economic factors (Laura King - Los Angeles Times); an unusual parliamentary debate organised to forge a national policy on how to fight the Taliban and al-Qaeda has exposed deep ambivalence about the militants, even as their reach extends to suicide attacks in the Capital…attendance was also poor. The Senate and the National Assembly comprise 442 members but one day last week only 40 were on hand (Jane Perlez - The New York Times); suicide bombs have become a near-daily occurrence. There have been more than 100 since July 2007, killing around 1200 people. As per a report by ISI, in the first eight months of this year more people were killed by suicide bombers in Pakistan than in Iraq or Afghanistan (editorial - The Independent).
Each suicide bomb that goes off in Pakistan digs us further down in the hole. The same has done immense damage to our already poor image abroad and now we are viewed as a “pariah nation”. As a result, the investors have flown away like the pigeons do at a gun-shot, the recent ICC cricket tour was called off for none wanted to play in Pakistan - citing security as the prime reason, the British Airways have cancelled all flights to and from Pakistan, the diplomats complaining lax in security in Islamabad have evacuated their families. So much so, even the UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon didn’t include Pakistan in his itinerary during his planned recent trip to the region. All of these above have shaken everyone’s confidence in us and as a result our currency has lost its value by more than thirty percent, plunging the country further into that deep hole that we have dug for ourselves. Moody and S & P (international credit rating agency) are both rating Pakistan’s credit worthiness second worst in the world, superior only to Seychelles, citing dwindling foreign exchange reserves, risks of extremists and high inflation. In short, Pakistan finds itself today in coma and the entire nation in a state of shock. As a result, smiles are gone from our faces as the future looks bleak and uncertain. And, the only people responsible for taking away smiles from our faces are none other than these senseless murderers out on a mad mission - the masterminds of these suicide bombers.
The irony is that our soldiers are fighting these terrorists in the tribal areas and sacrificing their lives but instead of providing them moral supports we have sort of left them high and dry. The press, especially the Urdu press and the amateur TV channel experts, who as they say are “available dime a dozen”, are playing negative role by continuously feeding on anti-Americanism. Little do they know that we are heavily dependent on America for our economic and military needs, and as they say, “beggars are no choosers”. So the name of the game is that we need to stand on our feet first before we can say no to America. In order to make economic progress and develop, we need political stability first. And, the same will not be realised if these murderers are allowed to operate with immunity destroying our very economic fabric and destabilising our country. In order to do that we need to fight this “war on terror” very rigorously and defeat these mad people who want to destroy us altogether and take us to the stone ages. And, as Pervez Hoodbhoy (in his op-ed in Chowk) puts it, “Pakistan must not be deceived. This is no clash of civilizations. To the Americans, Pakistan is an instrument to be used for their strategic ends. It is necessary and possible to say no. But the Taliban seek to capture and blind the soul and future of Pakistan in the dark prison fashioned by their ignorance. As they set their sights on Peshawar and beyond, they must be resisted by all means including adequate military force”. In my opinion, he is damn right in there and the defeat of these obscurantist alone will bring back our political and economic stability, glory, standing in the comity of nations, and hence smiles back on our faces.

Marriot Bombing - Another View

The Marriot hotel bombing in Islamabad is yet another grim reminder that Pakistan government’s “unstinted support” to US in its misguided war in Afghanistan is not coping well with its own geopolitics. The bombing is not as much a sign of “extremism” or “terrorism” as it is an indication that Pakistanis, especially the Pashtun population, see their government’s constant support of US invasion and continuous occupation of Afghanistan a betrayal. Pakistani Pushtuns have a strong affinity and religious, ethnic, social, cultural, and linguistic ties with the natives inhabiting Afghanistan’s border regions with Pakistan. They naturally have much sympathy for their embattled Afghan cousins.
Pakistanis, along with Afghans, do not view US attack and occupation of their neighbouring country as a legitimate counter attack in self-defence; the September 11 attack on the USA was a criminal attack by individuals, not armed attack by a country. US produced no evidence that Afghanistan either attacked the United States or assisted or approved the September 11 attack. None of the attackers belonged to Afghanistan. More importantly, Afghan government asked Washington to provide evidence of Osama’s involvement, Washington couldn’t because they had no proof, and the bombing began. Few weeks later, the war’s objectives changed; Afghans were told that the bombing would continue until the regime change. This war was never authorised by the United Nations Security Council.
The growing violent insurgency in Pakistan has very little to do with the religious extremism as the Pakistan government would like us to believe to cover up its own follies. Religious fervor today is no more than it was before the US invasion of Afghanistan in late 2001. However, suicide bombings and explosive violence was unheard of until recently. The nature of the violence points to different root causes.
It’s the unceasing deaths and destruction in the US occupied Afghanistan and Hellfire missiles, drones, special operation raids inside Pakistan, and, moreover, Pakistan army’s use of heavy artillery, tanks, helicopter gunships, jet fighters against its own population in the tribal areas that’s greatly responsible for the recent explosive uprising in Pakistan. The hard fact is that military operation in the tribal areas is not prompted by some national or strategic interest; the army action is seen as Pakistan attacking its own people on the order or behest of the United States. Rehman Malik, interior adviser to prime minister, may say as many times and as loud but Pakistanis are not buying his claim that the 100,000 troops in the tribal region bordering Afghanistan are fighting Pakistan’s war.
The feeling of tribesmen of being abused, exploited and terrorised is not totally unjustified. The military operation in Bajaur Agency in which gunship helicopters, fighter jets, and heavy artilleries were used left hundreds of civilians, including small children, dead. Almost half a million out of the 900,000 population became homeless, and hundreds of houses, mosques and other buildings were destroyed. The heavy-handed military approach is taking its toll; the situation in the tribal areas is now growing alarmingly similar to that which prevailed in erstwhile East Pakistan after the March 1971 crackdown by the Pakistan Army.
Like an unwelcomed spectre from Pakistan’s painful past, the unwise military adventurism has not only seriously harmed the harmony between Pakistan’s military and the tribal population but also created indifference and disaffection towards the united Pakistan. The tragic lesson, incredibly simple and blunt, of 1971 is lost on Pakistan’s political and military leadership.
True, it’s a recognisable duty of Pakistan to strictly check the infiltration at the Pak-Afghan border, although it’s impossible to seal the border, given the very difficult geography and terrain. The US army and NATO forces with all their resources are not able to secure the porous terrain. How could resource-strapped Pakistan be expected to do the impossible? Yes, it’s also required of Pakistan not to allow any sanctuaries and hideouts of Afghan insurgents on its soil. Pakistan must do everything possible to ensure a stable and friendly Afghanistan and let Afghans deal themselves with the US-installed Karzai government from within their own border and with their own men and material.
However, Pakistan deploying 100,000-strong army personnel in the sensitive tribal area and pitting them against its own population provide no solution to the quagmire Afghanistan is pushed into by the US. All evidence indicate the Afghan war has expanded into an unwinnable conflict against a formidable insurgent movement. A complete check on cross-border infiltration of men and material from the Pakistan side may make a small dent in the fighting capacity of the insurgent fighters; however, it will not eliminate or even significantly weaken their military prowess. Afghan insurgency has taken deep root and well adept at guerrilla warfare to remain a menace and constant danger to the US-installed and -protected Afghan government.
No proud people put up with the humiliation of occupation and expected to sheathe their sword when their liberty is assaulted, Afghans are no different. As long Afghanistan remains occupied, the region (Afghanistan and Pakistan) will remain volatile. Modicum of peace and sense of normalcy will only return when foreign forces withdraw and let the Afghans sort out their own future. The longer the foreign forces continue their present futile efforts, the longer the tragedy of violence, pain and sufferings and loss of human lives will continue.
Pakistan also must play its role; it needs to reassure Afghanistan that there will be no threat to its security from the south and diligently try to clamp down on militant activity in its tribally ruled border regions.
On the other hand, Afghanistan must not allow India to use its territory to destabilise Pakistan. Indian military presence in Afghanistan is not a secret. India has brought thousands of its troops in Afghanistan ostensibly to provide security to its embassy and construction companies working on a large scale in Afghanistan. Pakistan has legitimate reasons to believe that the sprawling Indian embassy in Kabul is more of a military base and RAW’s operation centre than a diplomatic mission, and is being used to create disturbances in Pakistan. Presence of such large contingent of Indian army and spies on its northern border, understandably, does not play well with Pakistan’s sense of security. Afghanistan must do to remove Pakistan’s concern vis-a-vis Indian army’s presence within its border.
Pakistan and Afghanistan should soon realise they are strategically bound together by a common fate; they share religion, geography, history, culture and traditions. They are also connected through ethnic, tribal, family and linguistic ties. No two peoples are as close together as Pakistani and Afghans. It’s time they put their disputes behind and move on together to face the challenges and benefit from the tremendous economic opportunities owing to their geo-strategic location.

The New Battleground

President Bush has named the tribal areas of Pakistan as a major battleground in the global war on terrorism. He has also reminded Pakistan of its responsibility to eradicate the menace from that area. The US President seems to be unaware of the fact that FATA has been a battleground for the last eight years where the Pakistani army has lost more soldiers in the fight against THE militants than in wars with India. But has that contributed to the eradication of militancy from the area? The sacrifices of our army are more than those offered by any other ally in the war on terror. This seems to have been overlooked by President Bush when issuing the warning to Pakistan.Action in FATA has already been started by the American-led forces across the border in Afghanistan. They are using drones to kill innocent people. As if that was not enough, the Americans violated the independence and sovereignty of Pakistan by landing their troops at Angoor Ada in South Waziristan. This is not a small incident. It has set new trends in the war on terror. The US has given to itself the right to violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of independent states in pursuit of its war on terror. This needs to be checked and the aggressor made to repent, to tender an apology to the government and people of Pakistan.It was encouraging to see the government responding quickly by calling the US ambassador to the foreign office to hand over a strongly worded protest on the violation of our sovereignty and the killing of innocent people. The foreign minister's statement in the National Assembly was a befitting representation of national aspirations. The stopping of the transit of containers at Torkham was yet another timely reaction in response to the glaring violation of our sovereignty. But all this was short-lived. The very next day the ban on container transit was lifted. The new policy for FATA unveiled by President Bush leaves us with two options: One, to accept it as a fait accompli and let the Americans do whatever they want to on our western border; we have already set such examples by not reacting to the attacks of drones in FATA on a daily basis. Two, we seriously reconsider the policy and deal with the situation in accordance with the wishes of the people of Pakistan. This would be obviously the best course of action to follow. It would make us proud as a nation to defend our motherland.It was encouraging to see the statement of the COAS where he said that "the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country will be defended at all costs." This is what is expected of our soldiers. We will stand by them. What we miss seriously today is the lack of trust between the army and the people in the tribal area. This needs to be restored, and it can be restored only if they stop killing the people on the dictates of others. We need to work together and follow the same path towards achieving peace. The civilian government should follow the principles of democracy which is "government of the people by the people and for the people" in every field and for everyone. The people in FATA are our brethren. They should not be left alone in this time of need. FATA is at a critical juncture today. Its people are sandwiched between the army and the militants. A situation is fast developing where the American-led NATO forces will start landing for physical assaults in the tribal areas. If that happens, the tribesmen will have no option but to join hands with the militants against the foreign forces. What role will the Army then play? Will it take sides with the Americans by killing its own people or join the tribesmen and the militants against the invaders? I hope some sense prevails to prevent the situation from taking such an ugly turn.The democratic process has now been completed in the country with Mr Zardari taking oath as president. In his inaugural press conference Mr Zardari said that he is "subservient" to the Parliament. If that is true, then he should not pursue the policies of the dictator and should take the matter to the Parliament to formulate a policy of its own. It would be advisable if he takes into confidence the leaders of those political parties which had not taken part in the election to arrive at a consensus on the war on terror. Once such a policy is agreed upon it will have the support of the entire nation. The West will understand our point and so will the president of the United States. He will hopefully avoid issuing orders for attacks on innocent people in the tribal areas. A consensus policy will bring us together in our fight against terrorism and extremism. We will not only be united in our stand on getting the country clean from the militants but will be able to defend Pakistan in a befitting manner from the aggression of foreign forces.

Govt Grip over Militants?

Behind closed doors in Washington, London and Islamabad a few months ago, the consensus was to initiate a strategic phase of "conflict escalation" in the region, even though it was acknowledged that the price for this would be a surge in militancy in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.
This is what happened, and, given the popularity of the Taliban among Pashtun tribes in Afghanistan and Pakistan, peace treaties were then viewed as the best solution, provided the terms and conditions were set by the international and regional players and not by the Taliban.
This did not work, as militant activities have broken the will of Pakistan's leaders, so much so that they are using back channels to sign new peace agreements, but this time on the Taliban's terms.
But the militants are obsessed with their own "conflict escalation" until their ultimate goal is reached, whether in the shape of Taliban rule or broader regional peace agreements.
The devastating suicide attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad at the weekend in which more than 80 people died is viewed from a different perspective in the Pashtun-dominated tribal areas, where militancy has a strong foothold.
Journalist Rahimullah Yousufzai argues that just as Islamabad's elite, foreign diplomats and undercover international intelligence agents are devastated by the Marriott bombing, the tribals are equally incensed by the daily aerial bombardment of Bajaur Agency and Darra Adam Khel.
The security forces don't make any concessions for Ramazan and its main rituals, such as the sahur and the iftar.
The tribals believe that non-Pashtun Pakistanis don't care about the massacre of Pashtun tribes by the security forces or the large-scale displacement of people - over 400,000 have been displaced from Bajaur during recent operations there.
The upshot is that the writ of the state of Pakistan has been reduced to the offices of the chief minister and the governor's house in Peshawar.
Information gathered by Asia Times Online through contacts in the Taliban suggests that over the past few months of military activities in the tribal areas, the Taliban have identified the main weakness of the security forces in Bajaur - they cannot take control of land. Instead, they have resorted to aerial bombing, which allows the militants to easily take shelter in the maze of mountains that runs across the border into the Afghan province of Kunar.
If the forces do try to establish land control, militants can quickly return to Bajaur and force them to retreat.
The Taliban's main regional commander, Qari Ziaur Rahman, has alone taken custody of over 100 Pakistani security personnel. As the number of prisoners soars, the conviction of the security forces to attack the militants weakens.
The situation further deteriorated this week when the Taliban's commander in Mohmand Agency, Abdul Wali, previously largely impartial in the recent conflict, joined hands with Rahman and sent hundreds of fresh guerrillas to attack the security forces.
A senior defence analyst admitted that despite the difficulties, the Bajaur operation was the only ray of hope for the security forces. If this battle is lost, Pakistan will not be able to stop the march of the Taliban towards the cosmopolitan centres of the country.
Already, the Taliban's success in Bajaur has emboldened them. They have made incursions into Peshawar and, loaded with sophisticated weaponry, they have forced the police to restrict themselves to their stations.
This enabled the Taliban on Monday to abduct Afghanistan's ambassador-designate to Islamabad from the upscale Hayatabad neighbourhood of Peshawar, and this in broad daylight. Abdul Khaliq Farahi was apparently first taken to Khyber Agency and remains missing. It is likely he will be used as a Taliban bargaining chip in any negotiations with Kabul.
The Taliban have shown they will go to any lengths in their struggle, even if it means harming fellow Pakistani citizens, including Muslims.
On Monday, the Taliban tried unsuccessfully to hit the main oil depot of Peshawar. According to a militant who spoke to ATol, the aim was to wipe out Peshawar's power for at least 15 days, during which time the Taliban could launch attacks.
Four rockets were also fired at Peshawar's airport on Monday and again on Tuesday. If nothing else, these attacks have created something of a reign of terror in the provincial capital. This is likely to spill over to the outskirt districts of Shabqadar, Charsadda, Matani, Darra Adam Khel and Kohat. For the past two weeks, the main trade artery - the Kohat tunnel - has been closed to traffic due to military operations in Darra Adam Khel.
One of the most significant developments has been in the strategic Khyber Agency, the main North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) supply route into Afghanistan.
The majority population here has traditionally been of the anti-Taliban Sufi school of thought. A recent tribal council (jirga) decided to close down the activities and offices of all religious organisations in the agency. The only exception, the jirga agreed, would be the Taliban. It was mutually agreed that the Taliban would not disturb the peace in the area or intervene in local affairs, and the tribes would not get involved in the Taliban's activities.
On Sunday, the Taliban seized four containers belonging to NATO. According to militants who spoke to ATol, they were carrying food and water supplies.
Swat Valley continues to be in the hands of militants, despite intense military operations. On Tuesday, a suicide car bomb killed nine Pakistani soldiers at a security checkpoint in the northwest of the valley.
Taliban commander Abdul Wali has also declared war against Pakistani security forces in Mohmand Agency.
The North Waziristan and South Waziristan tribal areas are completely ruled by the Taliban. On Tuesday, militants shot down a US Predator drone in South Waziristan.
In sum, across NWFP, the only areas that remain outside the militants' grip are a few government buildings and military camps, and even these are under attack. This can safely be termed a mass Taliban-led tribal rebellion against Pakistan.
An added woe for the leaders in Islamabad is information acquired by the security agencies suggesting the growing strength of militant organisations in the largest province of Punjab. These groups could carry out attacks such as the one on the Marriott.
In response to this creeping militancy, President Asif Ali Zardari, while in New York for the United Nations General Assembly meeting, is talking with US officials about creating a joint border force comprising American, Afghan and Pakistani troops to hunt down the Taliban.
At the same time, in Islamabad, the federal advisor to the Interior Ministry, the powerful Rehman Malik, recently contacted the Taliban leader in South Waziristan, Baitullah Mehsud, and other Taliban commanders such as Faqir Muhammed to negotiate a ceasefire agreement.
The offers were turned down. This leaves Islamabad in a very awkward situation. It cannot afford another Marriott incident, let alone attacks in major towns and cities. It needs more breathing space, but the militants are not prepared to provide it, leaving conflict escalation the only remaining option.

Bajuar's IDPs and Govt Response

The recent military operation in Bajaur Agency has forced some 400,000 tribesmen to flee their homes for safer places along with their families.These tribes people are deprived of basic necessities of life, and blame the government for disturbing their lives in the holy month of Ramazan.The government has established camps for the internally displaced persons (IDPs) at various places in the NWFP but the arrangements are not sufficient to cater for even half of these migrants. Most of these tribespeople have shifted to Peshawar, Charsadda, Mardan, Swabi and lower Dir districts and are facing numerous problems. This is the largest mass exodus after the devastating earthquake in October 2005.Before the start of Ramazan, the government had asked the IDPs to go back to their villages and declared that there would be no attacks by security forces during the holy month. But it actually did not happen; the increasing strength of militants did not allow the security forces to abandon the operation. Unfortunately, when the IDPs rushed to their homes on government assurances, they had to leave again as the armed forces further intensified their raids. When the migrants came back to seek refuge in their deserted camps, they found nothing as the government had uprooted the temporary camps. There was no government machinery to facilitate the IDPs' stay.Ahmed Said, a resident of Mamoon area in Bajaur Agency, while talking to me said: "The government had assured us that there would be no operation in Ramazan. When we reached back our deserted homes, the bombing and shelling started again. We had no option but to leave again. This time the government camps had been uprooted. Now we are living in the open."Expressing his pent up feelings against the authorities, he blamed the government for not taking a timely decision against the militants. "To retaliate a single shell from any adjoining village, the forces indiscriminately bomb the whole area," he added.People belonging to these areas are faced with multiple problems ranging from food, shelter, security to psychological trauma. Some women and children have managed to take shelter in the verandas of government school buildings but barred from using the rooms. A school teacher at Timargarah told that: "We have allowed them to stay in verandas of schools but during school timings they are asked to stay away. It is not possible for us to accommodate them during day time."Scarcity of food, water and other basic amenities of life has made the lives of these people very miserable. The rich people who left the restive Bajaur Agency have hired houses on rent but the poor are facing a real hard time. In Charsadda there is shortage of safe places and people are compelled to live in congestion. Even a family of twenty is living in one single muddy room.People have apprehensions that security forces are making arbitrary assaults. Wisal Khan of Badano area in Bajaur blamed the government of not exactly targeting the hideouts of militants instead their stray bullets threaten the lives of peaceful tribesmen. "We wonder whether the government is targeting extremists or harmless residents of Bajaur Agency."Rustam of Sadiqabad was of the view that with the given strategy the government would not be able to win the hearts of tribesmen which is very important to wipe out militancy from the troubled tribal region. "How can the government expect from us to guard the porous border when we ourselves are being targeted from two sides -- government and the militants," said Rustam.Some 16,000 people have so far migrated to Kunar province of Afghanistan, adjacent to Bajaur Agency while the militants from Kunar province have shifted to Bajaur Agency.For the government, success in war against terrorism, according to political and military strategists, depends on support of the locals. But the ground realities in the area are indicative of the fact that the gulf between the government and the tribesmen is widening.