Thursday, 25 December 2008
Rescue & Recovery
Nation pays tribute to Quaid today
A thought for the Quaid
Peace on Earth
Wednesday, 3 December 2008
Dangerous Deeds
An open Letter to Indians
Women & Democracy
Tuesday, 2 December 2008
Living with HIV
New findings, highlighted on World AIDS Day which fell Monday, indicate the disease may be far more prevalent in our society than we think. The latest indication of this reality has come from the town of Jallapur Jattan in Punjab, where an NGO found 342 positive cases last year. The National AIDS Control Programme (NACP) has since undertaken an investigation in which it is re-testing those identified by the NGO. Over 100 have so far been confirmed as HIV positive, while the screening process continues. The NACP has itself conceded its estimate of only around 70,000 HIV positives cases in the country may be an underestimate. It is believed that a pattern such as that discovered at Jalalpur Jattan could be in place in many other parts of Punjab, particularly in places from where migration is high.
International agencies have in the past warned on more than one occasion that the prevalence of high-risk behaviours in the country put Pakistan at risk of an AIDS epidemic. A few years ago, high rates of prevalence were found among Injecting Drug Users in Larkana. There is a need now to sit up and take note. The NACP needs to play a much more active part in updating its own figures. The initial findings from Punjab must be followed up on and strategy re-devised in their light so that we can do what is possible to prevent a large-scale outbreak of the infection amongst populations across the country.
Monday, 1 December 2008
The Post-IMF facility scenario
Given the current state of the economy, ruined by successive regimes, and no workable alternative offered by critics or available to the government, the IMF package may, at least, prevent default on external debt repayments.
While the IMF funds would pay the debt instalments due until June 2010, with this fresh debt and small chunks provided by S. Arabia, China, IDB, ADB and WB the total external debt will cross $54 billion. Policy makers should worry about generating resources to pay the annual instalments of this huge debt, and keep the economy going, with minimum affordable levels of inflation, incomes and unemployment.
Critics of the IMF package should accept that the economy’s current state reflects the then government’s inaction during 2004-08 when stricter fiscal discipline could have avoided distress borrowing from the IMF. That scenario can be repeated if politicians still don’t focus on preventing revenue waste or misuse. Besides, by 2010, with rapidly depleting funds, IMF may not have the $3.6 billion it intends to lend then.
A change of focus is imperative because a perception prevails that in recent years, foreign inflows were wasted, a stark reminder thereof being the baffling trade deficit ($20.75 billion) recorded in FY08. While the mercenary attitude of banks and businesses is largely responsible for this crippling gap, blindness and sometimes active participation of state functionaries in escalating it is unforgivable.
Import of plant and equipment was a big contributor to the trade deficit that escalated during 2004-08. Not a bad development in itself but signs are emerging that some of these costly imports (paid for by export earnings, remittances and investment flows) were bogus transactions that brought in junk. In fact, these overtly legal transactions facilitated flight of capital worth billions of dollars.
This organised fraud was unmasked by a recent discovery (hushed up soon thereafter) that scores of containers disappeared from Port Qasim over a period of time without being screened for what they contained or being accounted for in the port’s record. .
What no parliamentarian asks for is the institution of an independent multi-stage verification process to ensure the imported goods being as per import documents. This no longer poses a problem given the fact that Port Qasim has the facility to x-ray containers and produce images of the contents of the containers – particularly important in case of expensive imports of plant and equipment.
What we need is a stiffly implemented procedure that makes it imperative for port and customs authorities to tally the specifications of the containers’ contents with the packing lists sent by exporters along with the shipping documents based on which imports are paid for. What also need to be inquired into and up-dated are the technical abilities of the customs staff to credibly complete this procedure.
A more basic issue is determining the appropriateness of the equipment being imported; with DFIs now extinct, and banks lacking this technical capacity, a question mark hangs thereon. In good times, scrutiny down to this level may seem overly intrusive, but not when Pakistan must spend every penny very wisely and ensure that it imports appropriate equipment. Politicians should ensure institution of such checks.
The many instances wherein export rebates were paid out fraudulently should have triggered a revamp of the rebate claiming system. To-date, except for half-hearted investigations into these scams, we heard nothing about a system revamp and augmentation, which reflects poorly on the parliamentarians; given this track record.
Posting FBR inspectors in business houses to check that GST and WHT being collected by them are paid to FBR is flawed; it will corrupt the system even more. The solution lies in mandating GST and WHT collecting agents to use foolproof FBR-designed software for recording sales, tax collection, and its payment to FBR; that FBR thought of introducing this globally employed check only now is amazing.
The other area needing parliamentarians’ focus is the mandate given to moneychangers that lends itself to differing interpretations by moneychangers, regulators and law enforcers. This mess can’t go on any more. The state must re-define very precisely the inflow and outflow types the moneychangers can handle. Experience leaves no room for the moneychangers to undertake any kind of outflows.
Under the terms agreed with IMF, Pakistan must cut its fiscal and current account deficits. This target can’t be achieved unless the government comes up with a clear strategy for raising domestic resources and, simultaneously, cuts both public expenditure and imports. This is a colossal challenge because it will require making sacrifices and optimising economies, neither a pleasant proposition.
To ease both, we need a strategy and action plans for (a) revamping the taxation system to tax un-taxed or inadequately taxed sectors, (b) provide infrastructure support to exporters of high value-added goods, (c) set up agro-based industries to make this sector a major exporter that also creates jobs in rural areas, and (d) revive competitiveness of import substitution industries to steadily cut imports.
This should be our first priority completing which in a purpose-oriented fashion would require vision and consultation. The crucial condition for success would be incorporating in a transparent manner the stakeholders’ view (not selectively but openly), to forestall vested interests undermining national priorities. Implementing this strategy is imperative for stabilising Pakistan’s macroeconomic indicators.
The government seems obsessed with hastily privatising big state assets, which is odd. Such an effort entails extensive preparatory work to avoid charges of favouritism and corruption. Also, this isn’t the time for such risky ventures because investors with credentials for generating optimal post-privatisation economic benefits may not come forward until Pakistan’s macroeconomic indicators depict stability.
So far, only highlights of the plan prepared by a panel of economists to achieve macroeconomic stability have been released; the plan is yet to be shared in full and debated with the stakeholders who must own it and strive for its success. Are the planners scared about the real world bursting into the musings of their ivory tower, or is some other flawed consideration holding them back?
Pakistan Re-open Refugees Camps
'I never thought I would become a refugee in my own country. Never ever,' Ghulam Ahmed told at Kachagari camp on the outskirts of the city of Peshawar.
Grey-bearded, illiterate, with no idea of his age, Ahmed said he could only hope it was a bad dream as he sat atop a pile of blankets grabbed from relief workers for his family of eight.
A few years back, authorities began dismantling camps in and around Peshawar in a bid to persuade the Afghans to go home.
Peshawar had been a focal point for volunteers for the guerrilla war, covertly funded by the United States and Saudi Arabia, to drive the Soviet Union out of Afghanistan.
But the refugee camps later served as breeding grounds for militants who joined the Taliban and other groups to keep the cycle of violence spinning in Afghanistan. But in recent years the conflict zone has spread to Pakistan's tribal lands.
Kachagari, near the Khyber tribal region, was closed for Afghan refugees last year.
Bulldozers destroyed the mud-walled homes the Afghans had built to replace the original tents.
Today in Kachagari, more than 1,700 tents, each meant for a family of six, have been pitched in the dusty earth among the ruins of the deserted Afghan homes.
The camp was only reopened on Sept. 28 and it now hosts more than 11,000 people, mostly from the Bajaur tribal region where a military offensive began in August to clear out Taliban, al Qaeda and other militant groups.
The military says more than 1,500 militants have been killed while 73 soldiers have also died in fighting in Bajaur since August, though no independent verification of casualties is available.
Unlike past offensives, the military has relied heavily on air power to push back the guerrillas.
DESTITUTE AND DESPERATE
At the entrance of Kachagari, two hospitals built with Saudi aid for Afghan refugees have been converted to offices for the camp management.
Scores of tribesmen jostled for food, blankets, tents and cooking oil supplied by U.N. and other aid agencies.
'I had my own grocery shop in Bajaur. I had some agricultural land. I was not that poor,' Ahmed said.
Security guards brandished batons to restore order among the desperate men.
Nearby, dirty-faced children, some without any trousers, played in the dust, oblivious of what was happening around.
'This is now our fate. It happens here daily,' said 25-year-old Aslam Khan, as he watched the miserable scene.
The U.N. refugee agency, UNHCR, is providing non-food items such as tents, blankets, sleeping mattresses and kitchen kits.
It also provided funds for levelling the ground to set up the camp.
UNICEF has set up latrines, provided drinking water, and opened makeshift schools.
Kilian Kleinschmidt, Assistant Representative of the UNHCR, said U.N. aid agencies launched an appeal for $54 million under their Humanitarian Response Plan in September to help these displaced people.
He said only around half the amount had been received.
However, he said, they planned to revise the appeal in view of the growing numbers of people fleeing the conflict zones.
Klienschmidt said nearly 35,000 displaced people had been registered in two camps in Kachagari and seven other camps elsewhere in the northwest.
'By mid-December, we expect up to 70,000 people will be in these camps,' he added.
Jalozai, one of the oldest camps east of Peshawar, was closed this year. It will be reopened on Tuesday, Klienschmidt said.
WIDENING CONFLICT ZONE
Besides Bajaur, security forces are battling militants in nearby Swat Valley.
Pakistani officials anticipate that a crackdown will be launched next in Mohmand tribal region neighbouring Bajaur.
Social scientists say the longer people stay in these camps, the greater the risk becomes that jobless young men will turn to crime and militancy.
'Many of these people are poor. The first and foremost thing for them is to survive and because of this they are more prone to get into militancy,' said Johar Ali, a professor of sociology at the University of Peshawar.
One American aid worker and his driver were gunned down and an Iranian diplomat was kidnapped and his guard was killed in Peshawar this month. Afghanistan's ambassador-designate was kidnapped from the city in September.
Kleinschmidt said security in these camps was a major concern for aid agencies.
'We need to ensure that the camps remain safe and the people there understand that it's not acceptable that ... they involve in any (other) activities.'