Serious Problems - Who cares

Coverage of the provincial budget announced by Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Finance Minister Humayun Khan on Saturday has been dominated by the theme of ‘balanced budget’: Rs294bn of expenditure matched by Rs294bn of revenue. At first blush, this may seem to be a good thing. But scratch below the surface and serious problems become apparent. First, the province’s revenue projection relies heavily on money flowing from the centre as promised — a pledge that is already looking shaky. For example, if the Rs25bn in hydel power profit arrears is not forthcoming, a serious hole will appear in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s finances. The sum is part of Rs110bn that was awarded to it in an arbitration with the centre and is to be released to the province over four years. Yet, privately provincial officials are pessimistic that the arrears will be released, pointing to the fact that the province has only been allocated Rs6bn as hydel generation profits for the next fiscal year — several times lower than what they believe is owed.
Next, on the expenditure side of things, while the NFC award last year has increased transfers to the province and therefore improved the fiscal space, a majority of the money is to be spent on salaries, and a great many of those salaries are paid to employees who are not needed. It seems that in a war-torn, recession-hit economy, provincial administrators have struck upon a favourite ploy to appease voters: giving them jobs in government agencies. At least three new government departments have been created rather than trying to encourage job creation in the private sector.
The main challenge, then, for the government going forward will be to mobilise its own resources. Relying on uncertain federal receipts and making unnecessary provincial expenditures will only destabilise its finances. For example, the Rs21bn allocated to the police has more than doubled the present year’s outlay — arguably a necessary step — but the centre cannot be relied on to keep footing the bill. To be sure, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has suffered disproportionately over the last years from militancy; however, that should not be used as an excuse to further delay reform.

Missing Persons Case

The reassurance given by the chief justice at a meeting of the National Judicial Policymaking Committee in Quetta on Friday with regard to efforts to find the ‘missing’ persons should give some hope to the affected families. The apex court has been seized of the matter for five years now but the current government, like the previous one, has done little to recover the missing, a large number of whom belong to Balochistan where Gen Musharraf launched an operation to rein in Baloch nationalists.
The families of those gone missing have alleged that their dear ones were picked up by intelligence agencies on suspicion of involvement in terrorist activities, and that some may have been extradited to interrogation camps on foreign shores. That is why, unfortunately, the term ‘missing’ is often used as a euphemism for those presumably picked up by intelligence agencies and kept in illegal confinement without being arraigned in a court of law with charges brought against them for trial under due process. The number of such people is said to be in the hundreds. Few have been located or recovered so far.
The recently formed judicial commission to probe the phenomenon and help locate the whereabouts, or indeed fate, of those gone missing is a step in the right direction. Yet, the commission alone cannot ensure their recovery as there is hardly anything by way of official record concerning those held in illegal custody or prosecuted without due process. It is a particularly sensitive issue in Balochistan given the province’s many genuine grievances against the modus operandi of a highhanded federal and military intelligence and security apparatus. For democracy to take root it is crucial for the missing persons to be located and administered justice and for their tormentors to be held to account for violating the law.

NWA Operation

Pakistan is buying time in North Waziristan - gathering intelligence, building alliances and insisting any assault into the Taliban and Al-Qaeda fortress take place at its own time and choosing.
Part of the tribal belt on the Afghan border, North Waziristan is home to 350,000 people but considered a stronghold for the most dangerous militants in the world and largely impenetrable.
It is also a rumoured hiding place of Osama bin Laden.
Commanders are walking a tightrope, balancing US pressure for action against fears that a major push into the hornet's nest would make enemies they cannot beat and drag Pakistan into a new wave of violence.
As well as the bin Laden connection, North Waziristan's mountains are also a refuge for Pakistani Tehreek-e-Taliban who escaped an offensive in neighbouring South Waziristan and networks fighting US forces in Afghanistan.
Among those using bases in North Waziristan are the Haqqani network, created by Afghan warlord Jalaluddin Haqqani and run by his son Sirajuddin; Afghan Taliban; Pakistani warlord Hafiz Gul Bahadur and his ally Maulvi Sadiq Noor.
They are blamed by the United States for fuelling the nearly nine-year insurgency in Afghanistan, for attacking the 142,000 US-led Nato troops there and for working to destabilise the Western-backed government in Kabul.
But they are also men whom the Pakistani security establishment believes pose no direct risk to the homeland because their activities are targeted across the border, while homegrown Taliban pose a more immediate threat.
Opening a new front against the likes of Haqqani and Gul Bahadur would, Pakistani officials believe, make enemies out of well-trained, well-financed groups that are potentially valuable allies when US troops leave Afghanistan.
Given the risks involved and strain on Pakistani troops, with forces actively engaged in six of the seven tribal districts, analysts say fears of a backlash, including attacks on civilians, are holding the army back.
Last year saw a huge surge in attacks in retaliation for military offensives in Swat and South Waziristan, followed this year by a relative decline.
Around 140,000 troops are deployed along the western border, leaving 100,000 in the east, where Pakistan meets India, and commanders are wary of leaving that frontier more exposed.

After Phet Disaster

Cyclone Phet came and went. Luckily, it had lost much of its intensity as it continued on its trajectory along the coast of Balochistan and Sindh and did not cause the large-scale devastation feared earlier. By Monday, the Met office had downgraded Phet to a “well-marked low-pressure area” hovering over the Indian state of Rajasthan. It added that there was little chance of heavy rain in Sindh anymore. But it was not completely smooth sailing for the coastal belt.
Several deaths were reported in Karachi while power had still not been restored to parts of the metropolis by Monday evening. Many areas of Thatta and Badin — where the storm made landfall — also remained inundated. Yet it seems Balochistan has borne the brunt of the stormy weather. Although there were no reports of fatalities as people were evacuated from the vulnerable areas, the material damage has been considerable.
The torrential rains and gusty winds accompanying Phet tore along the Makran coast, particularly affecting Gwadar and Lasbela districts. Power supply, which had been disrupted in many coastal towns as the storm struck, has not been restored, while countless houses have collapsed. Certain areas are reportedly under four feet of water. Dozens of boats in Gwadar have also been damaged. Contact with the affected areas of Balochistan is also difficult as key roads and bridges are either damaged or have been washed away.
Though all the affected areas in Sindh and Balochistan need attention, the latter province requires a little extra effort on the government’s part. Claims of neglect following the far more destructive cyclone of 2007 are still fresh in the people’s mind. The inattention of the past must not be repeated or it will give disgruntled elements the chance to exploit the situation. The prime minister’s promise of aid should be fulfilled through immediate action and aid. Speedy reconstruction and relief efforts should be ensured. There is also a need for officials to come up with a long-term plan that can minimise the risk to settlements from the havoc that natural disasters wreak.

Peace Returns to Swat

On Thursday, a statement released by the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan welcomed the restoration of peace in Swat, citing the reports of a fact-finding team. This is encouraging and testifies to the Pakistan Army’s efforts since the military operation was launched last year. However, lasting stability hinges on several factors and requires more than the efforts of the army alone.
First, the security forces must refrain from adopting a ham-fisted approach. No illegal practices should be associated with the army. Yet the HRCP fact-finding team says that the security forces were in some areas committing human rights violations. These include extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detentions and the forced displacement of families of suspected militants. This is counterproductive and must cease since it tarnishes the image of the army while alienating the local people.
Secondly, the role played by the army in maintaining peace must slowly but surely be handed over to non- military agencies such as the police. The task of infrastructure development and rehabilitation must also be entrusted to civi- lian bodies. That the army repaired and rebuilt over 200 schools is praiseworthy, for instance, but sends the signal that civilian organisations are not in charge. The confidence of the people will not be restored unless the region appears safe enough for the army to be seen to be taking a back seat.
Third, the region needs a more efficient justice system. This will not only restore confidence in the state but also reduce the need for illegalities such as arbi-trary detention and extrajudicial killings. Only 57 of the nearly 3,000 cases registered against suspected militants since May 2009 have so far been decided, and there have been three convictions. This is unsurprising since there is only one anti-terrorism judge for the seven districts of Malakand division. Such deficiencies must be addressed if peace in Swat is to be sustainable.

40 Million under Taliban Rule

Human rights group Amnesty International said Thursday that nearly four million people are effectively living under Taliban rule in northwest Pakistan and have been abandoned by the government.
The 130-page report entitled “As if Hell Fell on Me: The Human Rights Crisis in Northwest Pakistan” is likely to ruffle Pakistani officials who believe they made great strides last year in regaining ground from the Taliban.
The London-based organisation said there were credible reports that at least 1,300 civilians were killed during fighting in the northwest in 2009.
There has been little official word on civilians hurt in anti-Taliban campaigns.
“Nearly four million people are effectively living under the Taliban in northwest Pakistan without rule of law and effectively abandoned by the Pakistani government,” said Amnesty's acting head, Claudio Cordone.
The group called the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) a “human rights free zone” and said more than one million displaced people were “in desperate need of aid”.
It urged Pakistan and the Taliban to prevent loss of civilian life and allow unfettered aid workers' access to provide food, shelter and medical supplies to the injured and displaced.
“We have an historic opportunity regarding Fata right now,” Amnesty's Asia-Pacific Director Sam Zarifi .
The international community has put up donor funds and Pakistani troops are operating in an “unprecedented” six of the seven tribal agencies, he said.
“The old tribal order has been hugely disrupted by the Taliban and we have a civilian government in Pakistan that has talked about short and medium-term reform. There is an opportunity to do something about the people of Fata.”The British colonial-era law governing Fata denies residents basic rights and protections, including their rights to political representation, judicial appeal and freedom from collective punishment.
“The Pakistani government has to follow through on its promises to bring the region out of this human rights black hole and place the people of Fata under the protection of the law and constitution of Pakistan,” said Cordone.
Amnesty, which based its report on nearly 300 interviews with residents in the northwest, accused Pakistan of launching “heavy handed” operations, including “indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks”.
It said the Taliban were guilty of systematic abuses, killing those who challenge their authority and imposing their rule through torture and other ill-treatment, targeting women, teachers, aid workers and political activists.
Insurgents increased the likelihood of civilian casualties by dispersing themselves in communities and blocking roads to prevent villagers from escaping “heavy bombardment by government forces”.
But a Pakistani security official contacted challenged Amnesty to visit Swat, where commanders say a decisive battle last year returned much of the northwest valley to relative normality after a two-year uprising.
Significant territory that fell to the Taliban had been regained and urgent efforts were being made to stabilise the areas allowing the displaced to return as soon as it was safe, the official said.

Public Voice!

A majority of Pakistanis don’t approve of Islamabad’s decision to join the US-led war on terror but, at the same time, they don’t believe that the Taliban are fighting for Islam, according to a survey carried out by the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (Pips).
Findings of the “Radicalisation in Pakistan” survey released on Tuesday show that 63.6 per cent of the respondents were against joining the war on terror, and 46.3pc were of the opinion that the Taliban were not fighting for Islam.
Even among those who sounded sympathetic to the militant organisation, 39.7pc condemned its acts of violence, such as attacks on girls’ schools, cinemas and CD shops. But about 22pc of them did not know how to respond to such acts.
According to the survey report, Taliban has sympathisers mostly in Balochistan (49.4pc) and Punjab (30.1pc) who believe that they are fighting for Islam.
Surprisingly, there are not many Taliban sympathisers in Fata and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Only 22pc respondents in Fata and 25.3pc in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa believe the Taliban are fighting for Islam.
However, 45.7pc of the respondents in Fata did not respond to the question.
The report reveals that Taliban do not enjoy much support in Sindh, AJK and Gilgit-Baltistan.
The respondents appeared concerned about the condition of Muslims and 77.7pc thought that they lagged behind other nations. Most of them (31.2pc) were of the opinion that this is because they had deviated from Islam. Only 18.1pc maintained that it was due to their backwardness in the fields of science and technology.
Another significant finding is that a large number of people (46.8pc) want religio-political parties given a chance to rule the country, despite the fact that the electoral performance of these parties were not “impressive’ in October 2002 when analysts attributed whatever success they achieved to the strong anti-American sentiments in the country.
The respondents also expressed interesting views on Jihad.
Very few (2.7pc) were of the view that Muslims had failed to progress in the world because they had lost their passion to fight against their enemies. About 28pc people believed that Jihad should be waged against cruelty and not to spread Islam to every corner of the world as five per cent of the respondents believed.
A large number of the respondents (20.4pc) were concerned about religious differences in the country. They blamed these disagreements for sectarianism and religious extremism.
However, a large number of people (21.6pc) did not take the disagreements seriously and said that these had been preordained and prophesied. The survey clearly captures growing religiosity among the masses.
Not surprisingly, 65pc of the respondents said a person who did not pray five times a day could not become a better Muslim. Nearly 59pc of them said the struggle for implementation of Sharia was also Jihad.
However, about 81pc of the respondents considered female education as “extremely necessary” and only a small percentage (12.5) thought it was “not very important”.
Nearly 23pc of the people surveyed said they did not listen to music, and (15.8pc) of them said it was because of religious reasons.
Interestingly, 51pc of the total sample endorsed Junaid Jamshaid’s decision to quit singing.
The respondents were from all urban and rural areas in the four provinces, Fata, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir (excluding military restricted areas).
The survey population was selected through probability/random sampling. Most of the people (53.4 and 14.8pc, respectively) belonged to urban areas and small towns. But a significant proportion (29.9pc) came from the rural community. A large majority of the respondents were either in intermediate (29.3pc) or pursuing a graduation or master’s degree (37.5pc).
Only 8.3pc of the people were not literate and 2.2pc had received only madressah education.
Interestingly, the general perception about the wars in Afghanistan and Kashmir is at variance with the recent militant discourse.