Pakistan may face serious food deficits and high food inflation with a 2.8 per cent population growth and a decline of 5 per cent in per acre yield because of global warming, says a new report submitted to the Planning Commission.
Pakistan needs to develop heat-resistant varieties of foodgrains since the average growth rate of major crops has declined from 3.34 per cent during the 1980s to 2.38 in the 1990s. At the same time, the frequency of negative growth years in some major crops has increased, according to the report of a panel of economists formed by the commission to suggest measures under medium-term development imperatives and strategy.
The instability of crop sector growth and the increased frequency of negative growth year becomes a structural factor in poverty creation. Since almost all possible arable land is now under cultivation, enhancement in agricultural production will have to come from an increase in yield, which is at present low by international standards.
The panel listed five major institutional constraints, reduced water availability, efficiency of irrigation, high-yield seeds, research capability and degradation of soils.
While the availability of irrigation water has been reduced, the report says the requirement of water at the farm level has increased due to increased deposits of salts on the top soil and the consequent need for leaching. About 33 million tons of salts are annually brought into the Indus Basin Irrigation System, of which 24 million tons are retained.
As a result of increasing water deficit farmers even in irrigated areas are dependent on rainfall. The future agricultural growth will have to rely on improving the efficiency of the use of water and other inputs. The rehabilitation of irrigation system for improving irrigation efficiency has become a crucial policy challenge for sustainable growth of agriculture.
The sharp rise in international prices of foodgrains and the opportunities arising for Pakistani farmers to trade in other cash crops and enhance their earnings could contribute significantly to a rapid enlargement of middle class even in rural areas.
In order to augment farmer prosperity the report stressed the need for narrowing the gap between the yields achieved by progressive farmers and the large number of small farmers, and shifting cropping patterns in favour of value-added horticulture at present suffers because of marketing system.
The panel also stressed the need for producing more vigorous seed varieties adapted to local environmental conditions, and their diffusion among farmers through an effective research and extension programme. There is no organised seed industry in the country to meet the needs of farmers.
A new dimension to the imperative of improving research capability in the crop sector is indicated by the possibility of declining yields per acre because of global warming. Given the sensitivity of wheat seed to temperature increase, even a two-degree centigrade increase in average summer temperatures would mean an absolute yield decline of between 10 and 16 per cent this century.
The current ineffectiveness of agriculture research and poor diffusion among farmers is a cause of concern, particularly so in a situation where future growth and labour absorption will have to depend more on input efficiency than on enlargement of irrigated acreage and input intensification, which were major sources of agriculture growth in the past.
One of the most important constraints to sustainable growth in the crop sector is the degradation of soil, resulting from improper practices such as lack of crop rotation and the resultant loss of humus in the top soil, stripping of top soil and resultant loss of fertility associated with over-grazing, erosion along hill sides and river banks due to cutting down of trees and depletion of natural vegetation.
Pakistan needs to develop heat-resistant varieties of foodgrains since the average growth rate of major crops has declined from 3.34 per cent during the 1980s to 2.38 in the 1990s. At the same time, the frequency of negative growth years in some major crops has increased, according to the report of a panel of economists formed by the commission to suggest measures under medium-term development imperatives and strategy.
The instability of crop sector growth and the increased frequency of negative growth year becomes a structural factor in poverty creation. Since almost all possible arable land is now under cultivation, enhancement in agricultural production will have to come from an increase in yield, which is at present low by international standards.
The panel listed five major institutional constraints, reduced water availability, efficiency of irrigation, high-yield seeds, research capability and degradation of soils.
While the availability of irrigation water has been reduced, the report says the requirement of water at the farm level has increased due to increased deposits of salts on the top soil and the consequent need for leaching. About 33 million tons of salts are annually brought into the Indus Basin Irrigation System, of which 24 million tons are retained.
As a result of increasing water deficit farmers even in irrigated areas are dependent on rainfall. The future agricultural growth will have to rely on improving the efficiency of the use of water and other inputs. The rehabilitation of irrigation system for improving irrigation efficiency has become a crucial policy challenge for sustainable growth of agriculture.
The sharp rise in international prices of foodgrains and the opportunities arising for Pakistani farmers to trade in other cash crops and enhance their earnings could contribute significantly to a rapid enlargement of middle class even in rural areas.
In order to augment farmer prosperity the report stressed the need for narrowing the gap between the yields achieved by progressive farmers and the large number of small farmers, and shifting cropping patterns in favour of value-added horticulture at present suffers because of marketing system.
The panel also stressed the need for producing more vigorous seed varieties adapted to local environmental conditions, and their diffusion among farmers through an effective research and extension programme. There is no organised seed industry in the country to meet the needs of farmers.
A new dimension to the imperative of improving research capability in the crop sector is indicated by the possibility of declining yields per acre because of global warming. Given the sensitivity of wheat seed to temperature increase, even a two-degree centigrade increase in average summer temperatures would mean an absolute yield decline of between 10 and 16 per cent this century.
The current ineffectiveness of agriculture research and poor diffusion among farmers is a cause of concern, particularly so in a situation where future growth and labour absorption will have to depend more on input efficiency than on enlargement of irrigated acreage and input intensification, which were major sources of agriculture growth in the past.
One of the most important constraints to sustainable growth in the crop sector is the degradation of soil, resulting from improper practices such as lack of crop rotation and the resultant loss of humus in the top soil, stripping of top soil and resultant loss of fertility associated with over-grazing, erosion along hill sides and river banks due to cutting down of trees and depletion of natural vegetation.
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